Thursday, November 8, 2012

NOM and Brian Brown are working on 0 for 5

National Organization for Marriage is now one for five in marriage equality contests at the polls (given that Maine was erased). If we add in legislative victories for equality, they have done even worse.  When the courts set Prop 8 aside, NOM will be zero for five at the polls. NOM has excuses for their losses this year:
  1. They are vastly outspent and;
  2. The margins were very close.
First of all, it's irrelevant. NOM lost all four races.

All of the campaign finance reports are not in. Nevertheless, in addition to NOM's spending there were vast sums spent by the Knights of Columbus, sundry bishoprics and other defenders of the faith. More importantly, the reason that NOM lost has less to do with money than the fact that attitudes are changing towards gay people. Furthermore, there is now clear and convincing evidence that nothing really changes for heterosexuals in marriage equality states. That truth prevails with each additional state making it considerably more difficult to defeat equality with baseless scare tactics. Moreover, I would venture to suggest that we were better organized.

We had far more volunteers who made more calls and knocked on more doors. In Minnesota alone, there were nearly 30,000 volunteers working for marriage equality. We also knew exactly what lies Frank Schubert was going to advance and when those lies would be posited. This time around we were prepared for Schubert's BS. It's increasingly difficult to scare people when they are increasingly aware of the truth.

NOM did not help their cause. They focused their campaigns on so-called victims of marriage equality who, for the most part, were victims of their own intolerance or stupidity or both. All of these were easily debunked. Moreover, some of these "victims" were way past their expiration date ... and I so missed hearing from the Wirthlins (who turned out to be professional Mormon agitators).

As for the margins:
  • Maine: 5.5%
  • Maryland: 4.2%
  • Minnesota: 3.6%
  • Washington: 4.0%

BELOIT, WI - NOVEMBER 02:  U.S. Representative...Those are not slim. Many political contests are won within one percent. But again, it's irrelevant. A win is a win. In addition to those, NOM spent money on a number of campaigns that were lost by even greater margins. For example, McCaskill won by more than 15% while Tammy Baldwin had a 6% edge. Shall I continue.

No Mr. Brown. This simple fact is that you are not as smart as you think you are and that's a charitable conclusion. We ran a terrible campaign in 2008 (California) and a mediocre campaign in 2009 (Maine). Those wins for inequality (one of which has not been erased) make neither you nor Mr. Schubert geniuses.
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