Friday, January 24, 2014

California ballot initiative to repeal transgender rights running short of valid signatures

At the current rate of validation, the referendum to overturn California's Non-Discrimination Requirements for School Programs and Activities law will not make it to the November ballot. It will fall short by nearly 20,000 signatures. I am cautiously optimistic. Cautious because, while this represents returns from 24 of California's 58 counties, it is still a very small (4.0%) sample. The counties with the least number of signatures (eg San Francisco) have submitted their validations the soonest.

This is based on submissions as of January 23, 2014. All counties must report their results by February 24. Proponents of the initiative (the usual Christianists) will need a validation rate exceeding 81.5%. The rate is currently running at 78.3%.

The validation rate at this point conforms to the random sample rate which would have failed by about 24,000 signatures but was sufficient to mandate a full count.
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